我国跨境电子商务出口发展前景预测——基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型分析

Forecast of China's Cross-border E-commerce Export Development Based on Grey System GM(1,1) Model

在目前大数据时代,数据的可得性和多样性导致样本量可以无限增大。而灰色系统可以满足在小样本同时数据不全的基础上进行建模预测。采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对2008—2014年中国跨境电子商务出口占比数据进行分析,发现GM(1,1)模型误差较小,能够极高拟合跨境电子商务出口占比情况。未来跨境电子商务出口占比会下降,同时将在中长期发展中出现瓶颈。

In the current era of big data, the availability and diversity of data can indefinitely lead to an increasing samples, While grey system can satisfy the model and make a forecast in small samples based on incomplete data. By using cross-border e-commerce export proportion data from 2008 to 2014 in China, GM （1,1） model shows that the error is small and it can highly fit to cress-border export proportion. The future of cross-border e-commerce export proportion will decline, while the long-term develop- ment will meet a bottleneck.