摘要
笔者提出了基于因子分析的财务预警建模方法,该种方法不仅实现指标的降维,而且能对公共因子的经济意义进行解释。通过对制造业企业的实证研究,本文构建了财务预警模型,并能够从六个维度对企业财务危机的产生原因进行分析,进而利于企业制定应对措施。此外,对于不同的主体,误拒与误受两类误判的代价差异较大,但大部分研究都忽略了这一点。因此笔者在模型中引入了误判代价,并对误判代价进行稳健性分析,也为进一步的财务预警研究提供新思路。
This paper presents a model of financial distress prediction based on the factor analysis, which can not only reduce the dimensionality of indexes, but also can interpret the economic significance of common factors. Based on the empirical study of the manufacturing enterprises, the model has been constructed, which can analyze the reasons why the financial distress occurs from the six dimensions so as to help enterprises make solutions to it. Besides, the cost of the false rejection and the false acceptation are quite different for the differ- ent subjects, while most of the studies have neglected it. Thus, the cost of the misjudgment is introduced into the model and a robust analysis has been carried out, thus proving a new idea for further researches on it.
作者
孟晓俊
宋楠
MENG Xiao-jun SONG Nan(School of Accounting, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018, China School of Zhuoyue, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018, China)
关键词
财务预警
因子分析
指标降维
误判代价
financial distress prediction
factor analysis
index dimensionality reduction
cost of misjudgment
