基于技术竞争力评价的汽车用气负荷预测

Prediction of Gas Consumption Load for Vehicles Based on Evaluation of Technology Competitiveness

采用多指标群决策模糊竞争力评价法建立汽车综合评价指标体系,对汽油车、柴油车、LNG汽车、混合动力汽车、纯电动汽车进行竞争力评价。将竞争力评价结果作为新的影响因素,采用生长回归Logistic曲线拟合进行汽车用气负荷预测。不同能源汽车各有其突出优势,环境性上纯电动汽车最优,适用性上柴油车最优,社会性上混合动力汽车和纯电动汽车最优,技术性和能源性上汽油车和柴油车最优。综合优度是混合动力汽车排名第1,LNG汽车排名第2,柴油车排名最低。加入天然气汽车技术综合优度的汽车用气负荷预测精度有所提高。

The comprehensive evaluation index system of vehicles is established by competitiveness e- valuation method based on fuzzy multi-index group de- cision-making. The competitiveness of gasoline,diesel, LNG, hybrid and pure electric vehicles is evaluated. By using the evaluation results of competitiveness as a new influencing factor,the gas consumption load for vehicles is predicted by Logistic curve fitting. Different energy vehicles have their own advantages： the pure e- lectric vehicles are the best in environmental protection, the diesel vehicles are the best in applicability, the hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles are the best in sociality, gasoline and diesel vehicles are the best in technicality and energy. In terms of comprehensive superiority, the hybrid vehic｜es rank first, LNG vehicles are second, diesel vehicles are lowest. The prediction accuracy of the gas consumption load for vehicles is improved by adding the comprehen- sive superiority of natural gas vehicle technology.