2016年我国五大合成树脂市场回顾及2017年展望

Review of China's Synthetic Resin Market in 2016 and Prospect for 2017

2016年,我国五大通用合成树脂净增产能超过350万吨/年,高于2015年增量,其中PE和PP产能增加较多,PVC部分装置关闭,PS和ABS基本保持2015年水平,五大合成树脂产量5 730万吨,较2015年增加7.6%;受优惠政策影响,房地产和汽车行业发展良好,拉动合成树脂需求增长,五大合成树脂需求增速约为5.0%。2017年,预计全球经济向好,有利于五大合成树脂需求增长,但新增产能高于新增需求,装置平均开工负荷将略有下降;国内合成树脂新增产能仍较多,且2016年新增产能进一步释放,加剧国内竞争态势,尤其PP和LDPE;国内经济趋稳,2017年五大合成树脂需求将保持稳定增长。

The year 2016 witnessed the capacity of China＇s five top synthetic resins increase by more than 3.5 million t/y, higher than the net increment in 2015, most of which came from PE and PP with little change for PS and ABS and several PVC plants closed, and the production of 5 730 million t/y, an increase by 7.6 percent from 2015. Under the background of China＇s economy in structural adjustment period featuring steady-to-lower GDP growth, the preferential policy, real estate and automobile industry development still shored up the synthetic resins demand growth of about 5.0%, though lower than 2015. In 2017 the global economy is expected to pick up, favoring resins demand, but capacity addition will run faster than new demand, pressuring average capacity utilization at slightly lower rate. The new capacity, along with the output released from the plants built last year, is adding to the market competition, especially for PP and LDPE. However, given the stabilizing domestic economy, we can still envisage a relatively stable demand growth for the five synthetic resins in 2017.