俄罗斯的现实经济困境及深层原因探讨

On Russia's Real Economic Predicament and its Root Causes

近年来特别是2014年以后俄罗斯经济的低迷,分别有其短期和长期因素。这些因素可以分解为三个方面:石油依赖、财政货币政策和生产要素的结构性问题。这些内部因素连同外部挑战交织在一起,使俄罗斯经济摆脱危机困难重重,而结构性改革的停滞又反过来强化了原有的模式。仔细分析俄罗斯经济现在的运行机制及其低迷的深层原因,才能找到摆脱当前困境的新动力。

In recent years, especially since 2014, there have been both short-term and long-term factors leading to Russia's slumping economy, namely, oil dependence, its fiscal and monetary policies and structural issues of production factors. All these internal factors are intertwined with external challenges, enabling it more difficult for Russian economy to get out of this crisis. Furthermore, the stagnation of structural reforms, in turn, reinforces the original pattern as well. According to this article, only through a careful analysis of current operating mechanism of Russian economy and root causes of its slowdown, can Russia find new impetuses to get out of the current predicament.