吉尔吉斯斯坦社会运动中的政治暴力:基于案例的比较分析

Political Violence in Kyrgyzstan Social Movements:Case-based Comparative Analysis

政治暴力是社会运动的一种类型,是研究欠发达国家政治稳定的重要视角。虽然学界对欠发达国家的政治暴力研究有一定的基础,但仍有特定地区国家政治暴力的研究未获得足够重视,吉尔吉斯斯坦就是其中之一。政治暴力属于复杂的政治过程,其产生是需要一定条件的。作为政治暴力发生的外部条件,宏观层面发展较好则有可能避免社会运动中政治暴力发生的机会,反之则会增加政治暴力发生的机会。其次,政治暴力产生离不开中观层面的激进化水平。当政治暴力机会被触发时,除非中观层面的激进化水平也上升,否则很难出现有组织的政治暴力。在微观层面,个人政治参与渠道的畅通对政治暴力产生有直接影响。当个人不信任政府的意见输出渠道被缩小甚至被封闭时,政治暴力就变为公众最容易选择的意见输出渠道。相反,通过有效的制度性反应扩大或疏通意见渠道时,则会降低政治暴力的发生率。

As one type of social movement, political violence is an important perspective to observe the political stability in less developed countries. Although there exists some literature on political violence in less-developed countries within the academic community, yet researches on political violence in certain regions and countries are still quite few, which include related researches of Kyrgyzstan. Political violence is a complicated political process, the emergence of which needs certain conditions. On a macro-scale, as external conditions for political violence, if they are good, there are few possibilities that political violence occurs, otherwise political violence tends to occur. Secondly, political violence depends on the degree of radicalization at meso-level. When political violence is triggered, unless the radicalization level increases, otherwise it is hard to emerge organized political violence. In addition, changes at meso-level under different regimes are different. The possibility of intensive and organized political violence decrease in those countries who choose parliamentary regimes. At the micro-level, the openness of individual political participation has direct influences on political violence.When the output channels for individual mistrust against the government is narrowed or closed, the political violence becomes the output channel which the public prefers to choose. On the contrary, when expanding or getting the channel unobstructed through effective institutional responses, political violence will decrease.