中亚五国经济和金融发展情况的比较研究(2009-2016年)

A Comparative Study of Economic and Financial Development in Five Central Asian Countries from 2009 till 2016

2015年以来,中亚五国受内外部多重因素叠加影响,货币贬值,汇率剧烈波动,通胀加剧,经济增长放缓。各国金融市场化程度不均衡,贷款利率高。各国外汇储备差异大,吉、塔负债率较高存在偿债风险;哈、吉和塔经济美元化程度高。2017年,预计在美、欧、新兴经济体经济逐渐复苏的情况下,各国经济增长可能逐渐向好。在共建丝绸之路经济带背景下,中国与各国的经济金融合作中,需注意各国仍存在通胀加剧和货币贬值压力,吉、塔有偿债风险,塔还存在流动性风险等问题。

Since 2015, influenced by multiple factors at home and abroad, the five Central Asian countries have undergone currency devaluation, exchange rate fluctuations, increasing inflation and economic slump. Each country's financial marketization varies and its loans rates are high. There exist big differences in currency reserves of each country. The liability ratio in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is also rather high. Besides, the dollarization in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is high. In 2017, it is estimated that when the economy of the U.S., Europe and emerging countries resurges, each country's economy will gradually improve. Against the backdrop of co-constructing the OBOR, China, when cooperating with these countries in economy and finance, needs to pay attention to those problems including increasing inflation, currency devaluation in those countries, high loans rates in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in addition to liquidity risks in Kyrgyzstan.