基于可拓理论和蒙特卡洛模拟的食品产业集群发展潜力研究

Research on the Development Potential of Food Industry Cluster Based on Extensible Set and Monte Carlo Simulation

为在传统定性分析食品产业集群发展状态的基础上实现对其发展潜力的定量评价,构建了一套包括IMS 3个二级指标、6个三级指标和14个四级指标的评价指标体系,确定指标的等级并进行量化,采用熵权法和EAHP结合法确定指标权重,基于可拓理论建立食品产业集群发展潜力物元可拓模型,根据最大隶属度原则确定指标和发展潜力的隶属等级,对模型进行蒙特卡洛模拟以确定敏感性因素,最终以漯河市食品产业集群为例进行分析,得出其IMS指标和发展潜力在评价期间均在不断加强。

In order to evaluate the development potential of food industry cluster quantitatively, a system of evaluation index-es including 3 second class indicators , 6 third class indicators and 14 fourth class indicators was built and the grade interval of the indicators was quantified and defined. Besides, entropy method was combined with EAHP to determine the weight, the matter element evaluation model was built based on the extension theory and got the final class of the development po-tential on the basis of maximum membership principle. The sensitivity analysis was made to identify the specific sensitivities based on Monte Carlo theory. At last, the paper set food industry cluster of Luohe city as a example to analysis and got the conclusion that the development potential is strengthening.