两岸四地人民币周边化的可行性与路径--基于货币锚与汇率联动视角的实证研究

The Feasibility and Path of RMB to Become the Dominant Currency of Four-region across the Strait:An Empirical Studies based on Currency Anchor and Exchange Rate Linkage

"一带一路"倡议下人民币周边化、区域化已成为推动人民币国际化的必由之路,而在中国大陆与香港、澳门、台湾(1)之间推进人民币周边化则是人民币区域化的优先选择。运用货币锚效应模型和VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型,使用2005年7月21日至2017年6月9日之间的人民币汇率日数据分四个阶段实证检验人民币在港澳台"锚货币"选择中的影响程度和人民币与港澳台货币汇率的联动性及持续性。货币锚效应模型的估计结果表明人民币已成为港澳台货币汇率波动中重要的"隐性锚";VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型估计结果表明美元仍然是影响港澳台汇率波动的最重要因素,人民币周边化的经济基础受到人民币汇改以及人民币与美元之间强弱关系的影响。现阶段应将推进两岸四地人民币周边化作为人民币区域化的本地战略加以实施,可考虑先行启动港澳地区的货币单一化进程,并等待台湾政治形势发生变化后择机逐渐将台湾纳入到"人民币区"范围内。

Under ＂ The Belt and Road Initiative＂, the RMB circulation in the surrounding countries has become the first step to promote the internationalization of RMB. The promotion of RMB regionalization between Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is a priority for RMB. In this paper,the monetary anchor effect model and the VAR-GARCH-BEKK model are used to test the influence degree and persistence of RMB in the selection of ＂anchor curren- cy＂ in Hang Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and the linkage and persistence of RMB and Hang Kong, Macao and Taiwan exchange rates. It helps to analyze the economic base and feasibility of RMB becomes a dominant currency of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Currency anchor effect model es- timation results show that RMB has become the second most important currency influencing the Hong Kong dollar and Taiwan dollar, and at the same time the impact of RMB on the Macao dollar has also been strengthened. RMB has become an important ＂hidden anchor＂ in the curren- cy fluctuations of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The results of the VAR-GARCH-BEKK mod- el indicate that the interactivity and persistence of exchange rate between the RMB and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan shows stronger regularity. At this stage we should promote RMB as a dominant currency of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan to realize the regionalization of RMB. And this paper puts forward some concrete policy suggestions.