变动中的平衡:东盟在亚太安全体系中的地位与作用

The Unbalanced Balance:The Position and Role of ASEAN in the Asia-Pacific Security System

在过去50年的发展历程中,东盟在亚太安全体系中的地位与作用历经了三次变迁。1972年,中美关系正常化使东南亚地区的冷战格局发生变化,东盟创始成员国开启了退出冷战的历史进程,使东盟得以顺利度过脆弱的襁褓期。1978年,越柬冲突爆发,东盟积极参与柬埔寨问题的和平解决进程,摆脱了在亚太安全体系中的边缘地位,但也暴露出硬实力不足的缺陷。1991年冷战终结,亚太安全体系发生历史性的剧变,处于地区安全结构平衡点上的东盟抓住有利时机,推动创建地区多边安全合作机制,成为亚太安全合作进程的"驾驶员",其地位与影响走向巅峰。无论从历史经验还是从理论模型来看,东盟在亚太安全体系中的地位与作用根源于亚太地区安全结构与东盟战略选择的互构。近年来,在美国"重返亚太"战略的影响下,亚太安全体系的结构变革逐渐深入,东盟在其中的关键地位也面临着严峻的挑战。东盟各国新一代领导人能否深刻理解东盟与亚太安全体系的内在联系,并做出合理的战略选择,对于东盟的未来发展具有决定性的意义。

In the course of 50 years of development,ASEAN's position and role in the Asia-Pacific security system have undergone three changes.In 1972,the normalization of Sino-US relations changed the structure of the Cold War in Southeast Asia,and the founding members of ASEAN countries opened the historical process of withdrawing from the Cold War and ensured that ASEAN was through the fragile period.In 1978,the outbreak of the Cambodian crisis,ASEAN actively participated in the peaceful settlement of the Cambodian process,to get rid of the edge of the regional security system.In 1991,the end of the Cold War led to a dramatic upheaval in the structure of the Asia-Pacific region.ASEAN,which is at the balance point of regional security structure,made full use of favorable opportunities to actively promote the creation of regional multilateral cooperation mechanism and become the driver of Asia-Pacific security cooperation,In the Asia-Pacific security system in the status and impact reached a historical peak.ASEAN's position and role in the security system in the Asia-Pacific region are rooted in the regional security structure and strategic choice.In recent years,under the influence of the return to AsiaPacific strategy in the United States,the process of structural change in the Asia-Pacific security system has been deepening,and the key position of ASEAN in the system has also faced severe challenges.Whether the leaders of the new generation of ASEAN countries have a deep understanding of the internal relations between ASEAN and the security system and make a reasonable strategic choice will be of decisive significance of the future development of ASEAN.