从非洲协调进程看尼日利亚与南非的地区领导权之争

Seeing the Competition for the Regional Leadership between Nigeria and South Africa from the Process of the Concert of Africa

21世纪以来,随着尼日利亚与南非实力差距的缩小,越来越多的非洲观察家关注到两国的非洲领导权竞争。这集中体现在奥巴桑乔与姆贝基所构筑的非洲协调逐渐失灵上。本文认为,两国的非洲领导权竞争是资源、动机和策略三者累积的结果。在资源方面,两国领导权资源差距有所缩小。在动机方面,尼日利亚对现状的不满有所增强。在领导策略方面,两国逐步放弃自我克制并采取特定互惠策略。两国竞争的主要领域包括地区安全治理、地区制度设计、地区组织人事安排以及联合国安理会改革等。本文评估两国领导权竞争可能会延迟非洲"2063议程"阶段性目标的实现。

With the narrowing of the gap of the national strengths between Nigeria and South Africa,more and more African observers have paid attention to the competition for the African leadership between the two countries since the beginning of the 21 st century. This is mainly reflected in the gradual failure of the Concert of Africa built by Obasanjo and Mbeki. This paper argues the competition for African leadership between the two countries is a result of the accumulation of resources,motives and strategies.In terms of resources,the gap of leadership resources between the two countries has narrowed. In terms of motivation,Nigeria's dissatisfaction with the status quo has been enhanced. In terms of the leadership strategy,the two countries have gradually given up self-restraint and taken a specific strategy towards reciprocity. The main areas ofcompetition between the two countries include regional security governance,the design of regional institutions,regional organizational and personnel arrangements,and the reform of the UN Security Council. This article speculates the competition for leadership between the two countries may delay the realization of staged goals of the African Union's Agenda 2063.