从资产荒到负债荒,下一站?

From Asset Shortages to Liquidity Shortages, Where is the Next Stop?

2016年国内先后经历了资产荒与负债荒,其重要原因在于全球经济尚未完全摆脱金融危机的影响,各国经济周期不同步,以及美联储政策存在很强的外溢性。随着全球经济进入"经济弱复苏+温和通胀"模式,美联储货币政策正常化有望推动全球利率重心缓慢态升。国内监管层将继续推进供给侧改革与去杠杆,但相关政策将更具有弹性,维稳仍将是主基调。未来,市场情绪趋于稳定,金融机构资产负债再平衡。

The domestic market experienced a shortage of assets and liquidity in 2016, and this largely reflected the slow recovery from the global financial crisis, the lack of synchronization in the recovery of economies around the world and the spillover effects from policies of the US Federal Reserve. With the global economy still exhibiting weakness coupled with moderate inflation, the normalization of Fed monetary policies is expected to lead to a slow rise in global interest rates. Domestic regulators will continue to promote supply- side reforms and deleveraging, but these policies will be applied in a flexible manner so that stability can be ensured. In the near term, market sentiment should remain stable as financial institutions rebalance assets and liabilities.