信贷政策对房价波动的影响分析

The Effect of Credit Policy on House Prices

本文以供求分析的视角阐释了信贷政策对房地产市场的作用机制。基于FAVAR模型的实证研究发现:住房贷款和开发贷款是信贷政策作用于房地产市场的重要渠道;个人按揭贷款增加或银行开发贷款增加都会引起各线城市房价上涨;相比于银行开发贷款,个人按揭贷款对房价的影响更大,影响的持续时间更长;一线城市房价对信贷政策的反应最为强烈,其次是二线城市,最后是三线城市。本文建议政府应根据不同城市的特点制定差异化的调控政策。

The paper analyses the effect of credit on house prices from the aspect of housing market supply and demand. Empiri- cal results based on a factor-angmented vector autoregression （FAVAR） model show that the individual mortgage loans and the housing development loans are the important channels through which credit can influence house prices. The increase in the indi- vidual mortgage loans or the increase in the housing development loans can lead to the house price increase. The effect of the individual mortgage loans is bigger than that of the housing development loans. Also, the effect duration of the individual mortgage loans is longer. The policy sensitivity of the house prices in the first-tier cities is the biggest, while for the second-tier cities the sensitivity is smaller. The sensitivity in the third-tier cities is the smallest. The government should adjust their measures according to the specific circumstances of different cities.