东道国人类发展水平、政治风险与中国企业对外投资——基于面板Tobit模型的实证分析

Human development,political risk in host country and Chinese Enterprises' OFDI——A panel Tobit model analysis

本文利用"中国全球投资追踪"数据库(The China Global Investment Tracker,CGIT)数据,采用面板Tobit模型,实证分析了东道国人类发展水平、政治风险对中国企业对外投资的影响。结果显示,东道国人类发展指数对中国企业对外投资有正的显著影响,政治风险指数对中国企业对外投资有负的显著影响,表明中国企业海外投资虽然是风险偏好型,但多会选择人类发展水平较高的国家。分样本来看,中国企业的对外直接投资受东道国人类发展水平影响更大,而工程项目投资则更多的是受政治风险影响,这一发现对中国企业的"二元性"投资行为有较强的解释作用。同时,东道国经济发展水平、通货膨胀率以及经济自由度等均对中国企业对外投资有显著影响。本文的研究结论对"一带一路"背景下中国企业的对外投资区位选择也有一定指导意义。

We use China global investment tracking database （The China Global Investment Tracker, CGIT） data, analyzed of the host country （region） level of human development, the political risk effects for Chinese enterprise foreign investment through the panel Tobit model. The results show that the host country （region） human development index has a positive signifi- cant effect on Chinese foreign investment enterprises, and the political risk index has a negative significant impact on China foreign investment enterprises. It shows that Chinese foreign investment enterprises have risk appetite, but most of them will choose a country with a high level of human development. Then we also find foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprise affected by human development level more in host country （region）, and project contracting investment is affected more by the political risk. It has strong explanatory function of Chinese enterprise ＂two types＂ investment behavior. At the same time, the level of economic development of the host country （region）, inflation rate and economic freedom also have a significant impact on China＇s foreign investment.