基于KMV模型的地方政府债务线性融资规划——以福建省为例

Strategic Financing of Local Government Debt Based on KMV Model——Taking Fujian Province as an Example

2014年《新预算法》实施后,规定地方政府可以通过发行政府债券的方式筹措资金.这种筹资方式同以往通过地方政府融资平台公司筹措方式相比,筹资流程相对规范,透明度高.通过企业信用风险评估的基本的KMV模型,及改进的KMV模型.从投资者和筹资者都能接受的角度,确定合理的发债利率,以地方财政收入数据为变量,利用改进的KMV模型,确定可接受的最大债务风险.并在可接受的最大债务风险下,以筹集到最多资金量为原则,构建线性规划模型,设计了一个针对福建省的未来五年的筹资方案.

After the implementation of the New Budget Act of 2014, the local government can raise funds by issuing government bonds. Compared to the past through the local government financing platform to raisefunds,this way of financing is relatively standardized, high transparency. This paper first introduces the basic KMV model for enterprise credit risk assessment and the improved KMV model for government debt risk assessment. Then, take Fujian Province as an example, from the perspective of investors and funders can accept to determine the reasonable issue and use the improved KMV model to determine the interest rates, take local revenue data as a variable, maximum possible debt risk. And in the acceptable maximum debt risk,build a linear programming model under the principle of raising the maximum amount of money, and design a financing program of Fujian Province for the next five years.