进口产品价格、出口产品价格与中国的进口产品价格波动

Import Price, Export Price and China's Import Pricing Fluctuation

本文使用2005-2015年38个主要贸易国家(地区)以SITC 3分类下5位码细分的591种工业制成品,约9万个观测值,从不同收入类型国家、不同技术含量产品和不同时间段等角度,对进口产品价格对出口产品价格的影响进行了分析,在此基础上,进一步讨论了影响中国进口产品价格的因素。研究结果显示:进口产品价格的上升能显著促进中国出口产品价格的提升。来自低收入国家的进口产品价格对中国出口到此类国家产品价格的影响最大;来自高收入国家的进口产品价格对中国出口到非高收入国家产品价格的影响程度最大;中等技术产品进口价格对其出口产品价格的影响最大;2008年金融危机后,进口产品价格对出口产品价格的影响程度变大;进口中间投入品的价格对出口产品价格的影响最大;进口质量变动对出口产品价格的影响程度大于进口成本对出口产品价格的影响;进口产品市场份额、实际利率水平、研发投入和FDI是影响中国进口产品价格的重要因素。

This paper uses 38 countries＇ Industrial manufactured goods trade data defined by SITC 3rev 5-digit code in 2005-2012, which includes 591 kinds of industrial products, about 90 thousand observed trade data, to analyze the ef- fect of the price of imported products on the export price, from perspectives of countries with different income types, different technology conten tproduct and dif- ferent time and so on. On this basis, we furtherly analyze the factors affecting China＇s import prices. The results show： （1） The increase of import prices can sig- nificantly lead to the improvement of our country＇s export prices. The effect of the price of imported products from low-income countries on the price exporting to these countries is largest; the price of imported products from high-income countries has the biggest impact on the price of exporting to non-high-income countries; the import price of intermediate technology products has the greatest im- pact on its export price; after the financial crisis in 2008, the effect of the price of imported products on export price had become greater; the import price of in- termediate inputs has the greatest impact on the price of export products; the in- fluence of import quality on the price of export products is higher than that of imported products. （2） China＇s market shares of imported products, China＇s real in- terest rate, R ＆ D investment and FDI in China are the important factors that af- fect the import price of our country.