中国区域产业结构演化的路径突破

Path creation in China's industrial evolution

在经济转型新阶段,如何突破已有资源条件的束缚,创造新的产业发展路径是区域经济增长的突破口。路径依赖和路径突破是区域创造产业发展路径的两种途径,已有演化经济地理学研究证实区域生产结构的演化依赖地区已有生产能力,是一种路径依赖的结果,而谁是突破区域现有生产能力实现新路径创造的开拓者却尚未得知。本文基于1999-2012年中国337个地级城市的424个四位数产业数据,沿用Hidalgo等人对生产能力的定义,研究中国产业演化过程中路径突破的可能,结果发现:地区新产业的进入以及已有产业的退出有助于地区突破对原有生产结构的依赖,是区域产业发展新路径的创造者。政府补贴一方面有利于地区现有生产能力的提升,增强地区路径依赖趋势;另一方面可为地区带来新的路径,实现路径突破并为区域创造新的发展机会。此外,政府补贴影响产业演化路径选择的效用受地方财政能力限制,并在空间上存在显著差异。

In evolutionary economics, the notion of path creation has attracted much attention in recent years.Previous research has expounded the possibility of path dependence and path creation in the process of regional industrial evolution, but it remains unknown that who changes the existing production capacity and accomplishes path creation. This article focuses on regional production capacity, and applies the indicator of density defined by Hidalgo. Based on the data of 424 four-digit industry of 337 prefecture-level cities in China from 1999 to 2012,this article discusses the path creation of China＇s industrial evolution. It is found that the entry and exit of an industry would break the original production structure of a region and become the creator of a new path.Governmental subsidies, on the one hand, can promote the development of a region＇s existing production capacity to enhance the regional＇s path dependence trend, but also can influence industry dynamics and accelerate the process of path creation. The selection of evolutionary path has significant regional differences.This study will help deepen the understanding of the change of China＇s industrial structure and its regional differentiation, and provides new evidence from developing countries for the development of evolutionary economic geography.