金融危机背景下区域经济弹性的影响因素——以浙江省和江苏省为例

Influencing factors of regional economic resilience in the 2008 financial crisis:A case study of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces

2008年由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,不同区域在本轮危机中表现出不同程度的适应能力,即各地区域经济弹性大小不一。但学术界对到底什么因素影响区域经济弹性没有定论。本文以浙江省和江苏省为案例,采用统计年鉴、国家知识产权局和课题组调研数据,通过建立二元logistic回归模型对区域经济弹性的影响因素进行定量分析与定性解释。研究发现:(1)创新水平越高、非相关多样性越强及中小企业占比越大的区域越容易最小化甚至消除危机带来的损失;(2)财政支出较大、外贸依存度较高的区域抵御经济风险的能力较弱,更易受危机干扰;(3)相关多样性与区域经济弹性无显著关系。研究表明,财政支出对经济弹性与区域发展的影响不能一概而论,应充分考虑其支出结构特点;要正确认识中小企业占比对区域经济弹性的显著正向影响。为此,政府应鼓励创新,增加对科技研发的投入;注重产业多样化发展,促进产业转型升级;加大对中小企业的扶持,使中小企业自身的优势得以发挥;同时,优化财政支出结构,并健全鼓励消费机制以扩大内需。

Regions show different economic resilience after the 2008 financial crisis. However, there is no agreement on what factors impact regional economic resilience. In this study, we took Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces as an example and established a binary logistic regression model to analyze the influencing factors of regional economic resilience. Based on quantitative and qualitative analyses, we found that：（1） Regions with a higher level of innovation and a higher extent of unrelated variety and a larger proportion of small and mediumsized enterprises（SMEs） tended to have better resilience in the economic crisis.（2） Regions with a large amount of financial expenditure and a stronger dependence on international trade showed a relatively weak ability to resist crisis.（3） Related variety had limited influences on regional economic resilience. This study points out that the impact of fiscal expenditure on economic resilience and regional development cannot be generalized. We should give full considerations to the structure of fiscal expenditure. Moreover, it is necessary to pay more attention to regional environment and institutions to fully understand the positive influence of the proportion of SMEs on regional economic resilience. Local governments should encourage innovation and increase investment in research and development, develop a diversified industrial structure, provide more support to SMEs, and optimize fiscal expenditure structure.