基于累积前景理论的高铁快递运价研究

Research on High-speed Railway Express Price Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

多数研究认为货主是完全理性的,面对多种运输方式可供选择的情况下,货主总是选择广义运输费用最低的运输方式,从而建立制约铁路部门希望收益最大的模型。实际上人们无法做到完全理性,人们获取信息的能力与认知能力都不一样。在传统的铁路运价研究当中双层规划模型运用较为广泛,但是该模型通常基于期望效用理论。在交通领域网络交通流的分配问题上有很多基于累积前景理论的研究,前景理论可以解决在不确定情况下的决策问题,运用该理论解决铁路运价问题的研究很少。本文基于累积前景理论的知识,建立各运输方式前景值的函数,并假设货主总是寻求前景值最大,从而货流达到基于前景理论的用户均衡状态或者是最优状态并建立下层模型,同时进一步研究货流在路网中的分配规律,分别讨论UE均衡和SO最优,研究两种情况下模型之间的关系,最后建立与之相互制约的铁路部门追求收益最大的模型,运用常用的灵敏度启发式算法计算合理的运价。

Most researches considered that the owner of cargo is completely rational and they always choose the lowest cost of generalized expense mode of transport, thus establishing a model that restricts earnings which railway department want to maximize. However people always can＇t be completely rational, and they have different cognitive abilities. The traditional hi-level programming is wildly used in railway transport price, but this model is usually based on the expected utility theory.There are many researches on the distribution of network traffic flow in transportation based on cumulative prospect theory, which theory can solve the problem of decision-making under uncertain co nditions. There are few researches on solving the problem of railway transport price based on cumulative prospect theory. So establishing function of prospect value for each means of transportation, and consider the cargo owner pursue the maximum prospect value and establishing the lower-level programming based on user optimal principle （UE） or system （SO） the optimal principle of cargo flow in the road network. Meanwhile, studying the distribution law of freight flow in the road network further, discussing the relationship between the models in the two states. Finally, the model of the railway department with the mutual restraint is established, and the heuristic algorithm is used to figure out the reasonable price.