摘要
肉鸡和蛋鸡的配合饲料价格稳定对鸡蛋和鸡肉的有效供给具有重要的保障作用。笔者基于1994年7月份—2015年10月份两种配合饲料价格的月度数据构建误差修正模型,研究肉鸡配合饲料价格和蛋鸡配合饲料价格之间的动态传导机制。结果表明:肉鸡和蛋鸡的配合饲料价格具有相似的波动周期和长期的协整关系;滞后1阶的蛋鸡配合饲料价格是肉鸡配合饲料价格的格兰杰原因;滞后1阶的蛋鸡配合饲料价格对肉鸡配合饲料价格存在非对称的传导机制。因此,加强蛋鸡配合饲料价格的预警、监测和必要的储备方案是促进肉鸡和蛋鸡配合饲料价格稳定的途径。
Steady mixed feed price of broilers and layers could ensure effective supply of eggs and chicken.Based on monthly data of these two mixed feed price from July,1994 to October,2015,dynamic transmission mechanism between mixed feed price of broilers and mixed feed price of layers were studied by the establishment of error correction model.It was found that there were similar fluctuation cycle and long term co-integration relationship between two mixed feed prices.Lag phase 1 of layers＇ mixed feed price was the Granger cause of broilers＇ mixed feed price,which had asymmetric transmission mechanism on mixed feed price of broilers.Therefore,strengthening early warning and monitoring of prices and establishing necessary feed reserve program were the effective ways to enforce stable price of mixed feed.
基金
国家科技部现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-42-G24)
关键词
蛋鸡配合饲料
肉鸡配合饲料
价格波动
价格传导
误差修正模型
layer mixed feed
broiler mixed feed
price fluctuation
price transmission
error correction model
