湖南省典型家用电子电器废弃量及其有价金属资源量研究

Generation Amount Prediction of Obsolete Household Appliances and Valuable Metals of Urban Mining Resources in Hunan Province

本文采用数学模型估算了1985-2040年湖南省主要家用电子电器的社会保有量,废弃量及其中所包含的有价金属资源量。其中,采用Logistic模型推测各年城乡平均每百户家用电子电器拥有量及社会保有量;根据Weibull模型模拟家用电子电器产品的寿命分布;基于物质流分析模型计算各年家用电子电器的废弃量及有价金属资源量。结果表明:2040年,湖南省主要家用电子电器社会保有量为2.6亿台,为2015年的1.5倍。预测2040年废弃量为4 608万台,其有价金属产生量约为47.94万吨。1985-2040年累积废弃量为12.51亿台,有价金属累积量约1 151.12万吨。其中,2015-2040年累计废弃量约10.21亿台,有价金属累积量约967.97万吨。

In this study, the possession amounts, valuable metals and obsolescence amounts of the main types of HAs from 1985 to 2040 in Hunan were estimated by using Logistic model, Weibull model and possession-based material flow analysis （MFA）. In this case, the Logistic model was applied to forecast the annual amounts of HAs per 100 urban and rural households as well as the possession amounts. Based on the data of two types of questionnaires, the Weibull model was employed to simulate the lifespan distribution of HAs. Meanwhile, some prediction models based on MFA were used to forecast valuable metals and obsolescence amounts of HAs. The results show that the total possession amounts of the main HAs in Hunan will exceed 260 million units by 2040, which will be 1.5 times the possession amounts by 2015. Besides, it was estimated that the discarded amounts of HAs will be approximately 46.08 million units by 2040, which includes 479.40 thousand tons of valuable metals. According to the results, cumulatively over 1.25 billion units of HAs would be obsolete from 1985 to 2040, and it contains over 11.51 million tons of valuable metals. In addition, cumulative discarded quantity of OHAs will reach 1.02 billion units from 2015 to 2040, which will produce above 9.68 million tons of valuable metals.