气象因素对电力系统短期负荷预测精度的影响

influence of Meteorological Factors on Short-term Load Prediction Accuracy of Power System

为研究气象因素对短期负荷预测结果及精度的影响,通过用Matlab对云南省和深圳市两地区2014年实际负荷数据生成持续曲线,并在此基础上,用SPSS分别对日最高负荷、日最低负荷、日平均负荷与各气象因素的关系进行多元线性回归分析。结果表明,两地区全年的变化趋势基本相同,但云南省年持续负荷曲线有更好的平滑性和周期性,可以获得更准确的预测结果。同时,气象因素中最低气温与平均气温对短期负荷预测精度影响较大,在提高短期负荷预测精度方面应着重考虑这两个气象因素。

The effects of meteorological factors on short-term load forecasting results and precision are studied emphatically, and generates continuous curve of Yunnan Province and Shenzhen City in 2014 actual load data by Matlab, on this basis, the multiple linear regression analysis was carried out on the relationship between daily maximum load, daily minimum load, daily average load and meteorological factors by using SPSS respectively. The results show that the two regions is substantially the same trend throughout the year, but the load of Yunnan Province have better smoothness and periodicity, can get a more accurate forecast results. Meanwhile, the influence of the minimum temperature and the average temperature on the short-term load forecasting accuracy is larger, and the two meteorological factors should be considered in improving the accuracy of short-term load forecasting.