基于系统动力学的海洋生态承载力研究——以惠州市为例

Research on marine ecological carrying capacity based on system dynamics: a case study of Huizhou city

本文以惠州市为例,构建了海洋生态承载力评价指标体系,分为压力类、支持力类和区域交流类3个目标层,包含人口、经济发展、环境污染与资源利用、资源供给能力、环境纳污能力、人类社会支持能力、产品交换等7个准则层。运用状态空间模型对惠州市2004~2013年10 a间的海洋生态承载力状况进行定量评价。结果显示:惠州市海洋生态承载力呈现波动变化,部分年份出现超载情况。2004~2008年,环境污染与资源利用是海洋生态系统主要的压力,2009年开始,经济发展成为主要压力。支持力水平总体平稳,且不断改善。利用系统动力学模型预测在现有发展模式下,由于经济增长过快,废水排放量和固废产生量增加,海洋生态承载力指数将逐年上升,2018~2020年将出现超载现象,为确保海洋生态承载力在可载范围内,惠州市需加快城市化进程,采用集约化增长方式,降低经济增长速度,提高污染物处理率。

This paper, taking Huizhou city as an example, built an evaluation index system of marine ecological carry- ing capacity which is divided into three target layers as pressure class, supportive class and regional exchanges class, and includes seven criteria layers as population, economic development, environmental pollution and resource use, resource supply capacity, environmental carrying capacity, human social support and product exchange. State-space model is applied to conduct quantitative evaluation to the bearing capacity of marine ecological situation in Huizhou city from 2004 to 2013. The results show that the marine ecological carrying capacity of Huizhou fluctuated from year to year;some years were overloading. From 2004 to 2008, environmental pollution and resource use had been the main pressure on marine ecosystems ; since 2009, economic development had become the main pressure. The supportive level was generally stable and increasingly improving. According to the prediction by system dynamics model, bearing capacity index of marine ecology will rise year by year in the current mode of development, due to rapid economic growth, wastewater emissions and solid waste generation;overloaded phenomenon will appear from 2018 to 2020. In order to ensure that the marine ecological carrying capacity can be contained within proper range, Huizhou needs to accelerate the process of urbanization and use intensive growth method to reduce economic growth rate and improve the treatment rate of pollutants.