中国低生育进程的主要特征--2015年1％人口抽样调查结果的启示

The Main Features of the Low Fertility Process in China: Enlightenment from the Results of the National 1% Population Sampling Survey in 2015

2015年全国1%人口抽样调查又一次刷新总和生育率的最低纪录。虽然二孩、多孩总和生育率略有提高,但由于一孩总和生育率降幅更大而导致生育水平继续下降。文章分析发现,一孩总和生育率的降低是全面性的,在城镇与农村、流动与非流动各类别均普遍存在,而且受育龄妇女未婚比例提高的影响很大。事实上,妇女未婚比例不断提高和一孩生育水平不断走低也是20多年来中国低生育进程的特征。一孩生育水平不断走低导致二孩生育占比相对提高,因而,近年二孩出生人口比重提高既反映出生育政策的调整效应,也受一孩生育水平下降的影响。因此,文章认为,提高一孩生育水平极为重要,否则政策调整只能短期增加二孩出生人口数量,之后总体生育水平还会下降。实际上,尽管已经调整了生育政策,但低生育水平依然持续。这一点必须引起政府主管部门和整个社会的高度警惕。

The national 1% population sampling survey in 2015 refreshes the lowest record of the total fertility rate. Although fertility rates of the second, third birth and over became slightly higher, the fertility rate of first birth has got a large reduction,which has led to a decline in the overall fertility rate. This paper finds that the reduction in the total fertility rate of first birth is comprehensive, which is prevalent in both urban and rural areas, in both migrants and non-migrants, and which has been greatly affected by the increase in the proportion of never-married women of childbearing age. In fact, the declining fertility rate of first birth along with the increasing share of never-married women had been the distinct feature in the low fertility process in China for more than 20 years. The decline of the first birth also led to a relative increase in the share of the second birth, so the increase in the proportion of the second births born in recent years reflects both the adjustment effect of fertility policy and the decline in the fertility level of first birth. Therefore, it is extremely important to improve the fertility level of first birth, otherwise the policy adjustment can only increase the number of second birth born in the short term, and then the overall fertility level will be reduced thereafter. As a matter of fact, despite the adjustment of the fertility policy, the risk of too low fertility still persists. This must arouse the high vigilance of the government authorities and the whole society.