1995年以来中国妇女生育模式的特点及变化

Characteristics and Changes of Fertility Pattern of Chinese Women since 1995

文章基于全国人口普查、1%人口抽样调查和1‰人口变动抽样调查数据,应用妇女生育模式和分孩次生育模式指标,计算并分析了1995~2015年中国妇女生育模式的特点及变动趋势,特别关注城乡差异、二孩生育及30~39岁组妇女的生育状况。结果发现,近20年来中国妇女的生育模式总体呈现出适龄生育为主、晚育为辅;一孩生育为主、二孩生育比例不断提升的格局。生育模式随时间推移表现为适龄生育组妇女的贡献率下降,晚育组妇女生育贡献率上升的态势,但近年来晚育趋势有所缓解;早育、高龄生育和多育比例有所提升;生育年龄向适龄回归的同时还有分散化的迹象。城乡生育模式基本一致,但二孩生育模式存在明显的差异;生育模式的城乡变化趋势极为相似。

Using data from national population census, 1% population sampling survey and 1‰ sampling survey on population changes, based on women's fertility pattern and index of children's fertility pattern, this paper analyses the characteristics and changes of fertility pattern of Chinese women between 1995 and 2015 by paying close attention to urban-rural difference, the second childbearing and the situation of women aged 30-39 years old. The results find that fertility pattern of Chinese women shows that the most children were given birth by women aged at child-bearing age and a few by women aged at a later stage. The first child is the main pattern, and the proportion of the second is rising. Fertility pattern manifests the increase of late childbearing over time as the decline of contribution of child-bearing age group, but the trend of late childbearing has eased recently. Meanwhile, the proportions of early childbearing, of very late childbearing and of three and more children gradually rise. There have been hints that the age at childbearing is not only getting comparatively early but covering wider age range. Urban and rural areas are seen similarity with the overall fertility pattern with different fertility pattern for the second child, and the changes in fertility pattern are also similar between urban and rural areas.