学校改革,价值几何——基于北京市义务教育综合改革的“学区房”溢价估计

How Much is An Improved School Worth? Evidence from the Comprehensive Reform in Compulsory Education in Beijing

近年来国内关于学校质量资本化的研究不断涌现,但这些研究都未能很好地解决学校质量与房价之间的内生性。本文结合了北京市义务教育综合改革带来的外生政策冲击和边界断点回归这两种策略,估计了"学区房"的溢价,考察了薄弱小学质量提升的货币价值。研究结果发现,对于2014-2016年间改革的薄弱学校,其服务范围内的房价平均只提升1.2%,且这一提升效应在学校宣布改革至少一年之后才得以显现。但是对于第一批实施改革的小学和60平米以下的小户型房屋而言,这种价格传导机制更加明显而且更加迅速。这意味着此次改革带来的优质教育资源可能被相对优势群体获得,这对未来我国义务教育阶段均衡化导向政策的制定具有一定启示。

In recent years, there has been a mushrooming of studies that estimate the capitalization effect of school quality into home values in China. However,these studies have not tackled the endogeneity issue well. Our study takes advantage of a reasonably exogenous comprehensive reform in compulsory education in Beijing and a regression discontinuity approach to estimate the housing price premium of school quality in Beijing. Our findings show that the first three waves of reform-induced improvement in school quality are on average associated with a 1. 2% increase in housing prices within the attendance zones of the improved schools. It takes more than one year before this effect to become noticeable. The effects were much larger and appear much faster for the first wave of the improved schools and for small apartments. These results imply that the benefits of the reform may be captured by the relative well-off group in the society which sheds lights on the policy efforts to equalize school resources in China's compulsory education.