基于卫星观测数据的预测模型及其应用

Forecasting Model and Its Application that Based on the Data of Satellites' Observing

在战争中为了避开敌方军事卫星的侦查,需要对其过顶时间进行预警.对于参数公开的卫星,可以通过根数来进行准确的预报.而对于参数未知的卫星,提出了一种根据过往观测数据来对卫星过顶时间进行预测的思路:将卫星与地球之间复杂的三维耦合运动进行降维,并且以地面为参考系,发现卫星星下点运动轨迹具有高度的周期性·根据这种思路,可以通过获取的过往观测数据来对卫星未来的过顶时间进行准确预测.而对于战时地面运动单位躲避卫星的问题,可以根据所面对的不同侦查卫星通过设置一个固定的路线,让地面单位在该路线中有计划的行驶,能够躲避多种卫星的侦查.

To prevent the satellite reconnaissance in a war, we need to predict the peak times. For the satellite whose orbital elements have been already known, it＇s easy to predict. But for the else, we propose a method that can predict the peak times which is based on the past data of satellite observation. First, we find that the motion of substar possesses highly periodicity. And then we find that we can forecast, the following peak times precisely. As for moving ground units, we can find a fixed route for them. By moving in the route designedly, they caal avoid spying of many kinds of satellites.