基于对偶抽样蒙特卡洛法的有源配电系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Active Distribution System Based on the Antithetic Variable Sampling Monte-carlo Algorithm

研究含典型分布式电源的配电网可靠性评估问题,针对源荷侧资源的随机波动特性,提出一种基于对偶抽样蒙特卡洛法的有源配电系统可靠性评估数学模型。首先对随机性源荷侧资源进行概率性指标建模,其次建立典型配电网可靠性评估指标用于评估分布式电源接入后对配电系统可靠运行的影响,再次,将对偶抽样技术引入以提高传统蒙特卡洛算法在处理可靠性评估方法计算效率的缺陷性,进而提高计算结果的方差精度。最后,对改进的IEEE-RBTS Bus 6的主馈线F4进行分析计算以验证本文所建模型的可行性和所提算法的高效性。

In this paper,the issue of reliability evaluation of active distribution network（ADN） containing typical distribution power supply is studied. In view of random fluctuation feature of the source-load side resources, a kind of mathematical model for the reliability evluation of active distribution system based on an- tithetic variable sampling Monte-carlo algorithm is proposed. Firstly, the probabilistic index modeling of ran- domn source-load side resources is established, then the reliability evaluation index for the typical distribution network is set up for evaluating the influence of distribution power supply after connection on the relia- ble operation of the distribution system. After that, the antithetic variable sampling techniques is introduced to improve the drawback of traditional Monte-carlo algorithm in the treatment of calculation efficiency of reliabiity evaluation method and thus improve the variance accuracy of the calculation result. Finally, the main feed F4 of improved IEEE-RBTS Bus 6 is analyzed and calculated to verify both the feasibility of the modeling in the paper and high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.