我国资本市场分割与资本扩张的经济增长效应

China's Capital Market Segmentation and Economic Growth Effect of Capital Expansion

要素活力的释放,特别是资本的快速扩张是推动中国经济快速增长的重要因素,而厘清资本扩张和经济增长的内在关联则是深入理解中国经济发展道路的关键。通过对中国资本市场分割程度的分解与测算,本文以中国31个省(直辖市)的面板数据检验资本扩张的经济增长效应,结果表明:经历了长期的发展,我国资本市场的分割趋势仍然明显,而且依然处于扩大趋势;我国资本市场完善和资本扩张并没有处于同步进程,资本扩张和经济增长的外源式特征明显;资本市场分割与经济增长存在倒U型曲线关系,随着经济发展到一定高度,持续分割的资本市场将对经济增长产生抑制效应;长远来看,持续的经济增长和有序的资本扩张以健全、统一、完善的资本市场为基础,进一步的改革导向在于资本市场的深度推进。

The release of factor vitality, especially the rapid expansion of capital, is a key factor promoting the rapid growth of China＇s economy, while clarifying the intrinsic relationship between capital expansion and economic growth is the key to having a deep understanding of China＇s economic development path. By the decomposition and calculation of the segmentation degree of China＇s capital market, the economic growth effect of capital expansion is examined by the panel data of 31 provinces （municipalities） in China. The results show that： after a long period of development, the segmentation trend of China＇s capital market still exists and is even expanding; the capital market improvement and capital expansion are not in synchronization, and the exogenous characteristic of capital expansion and economic growth is obvious ; there is an inverted U curve relationship between capital market segmentation and economic growth, and when the economy reaches a certain height, the continuous segmented capital market will restrain the economic growth; in the long run, the sustainable economic growth and the orderly capital expansion need a sound, unified, and perfect capital market, and the further reform direction is the deep reform of capital market.