外资流入、人力资本与我国出口贸易结构分析

An Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows,Human Capital and China's Export Trade Structure

有效利用外资并发挥人力资本优势、优化出口贸易结构是我国对外开放格局调整面临的重要问题。基于我国30个省1998-2015年的面板数据,本文利用门槛回归模型分析外资流入与人力资本对我国出口贸易结构的影响,发现外资流入在短期中有效促进我国出口贸易结构升级,但就长期而言却会产生负向作用;高技术人力资本在我国出口贸易结构升级扮演重要的角色,而人力资本结构的作用并不理想;外资流入与高技术人力资本结合对出口贸易结构产生正向作用,我国人力资本结构与外资结合适配性良好;对外开放度门槛效应显著存在,外资流入流量对出口贸易结构产生正向影响的门槛较低,而外资流入存量与人力资本异质性对出口贸易结构影响的门槛较为严格。所以,在利用外资以及与外资企业合作方面,我们应均衡外资在产业间的均衡分配,并筛选外资类型与地区发展的契合度,拉动劳动密集型产业向资本密集型产业升级;我国应该充分认清人力资本水平异质性结构对贸易结构的关键作用,加大对人力资本的投资,提高劳动力的技能水平,使得我国出口贸易逐步转向依托高技术人才的创新发展模式,促进贸易结构升级。

Making use of foreign capital effectively, playing advantage of human capital and optimizing export trade structure are important problems in the adjustment of China＇s opening-up pattern. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1998 to 2015, this paper analyzes the influence of foreign capital inflows and human capital on China＇s export trade structure by using the threshold regression model. Research finds that foreign capital inflows will effectively promote the upgrading of China＇s export trade structure in the short term, but in the long run it will have a negative effect; high-tech human capital plays an important role in the upgrading of China＇s export trade structure, but the role of human capital structure is not ideal; the combination of foreign capital inflows and high-tech human capital has a positive effect on the export trade structure, and thus has a good suitability; the threshold effect of openness is significant, the foreign capital inflows is more liable to produce a positive effect on export trade structure while it is less easily affected by foreign capital inflows and human capital heterogeneity. Therefore, in terms of foreign capital use and cooperation with foreign-funded enterprises, we should balance the foreign capital distribution in industries, and screen out the degree of fit between foreign capital type and regional development to push the upgrading of labor-intensive industries to capitalintensive industries. China should fully recognize the key role of heterogeneous structure of human capital in trade structure and increase the investment in human capital to improve the skill level of labor force, making China＇s export trade shift to the innovative development model relying on high-tech personnel to promote the upgrading of trade structure.