基于多维技术创新地图的技术预测研究

Research on Technological Forecasting Based on Multidimensional Technology Innovation Map

[目的/意义]技术预测是对技术发展趋势进行的推测,可对技术变化效应与潜在方向做出系统性、目标性的展望,旨在不断提升企业的核心竞争力。[方法/过程]在总结技术知识发现规律及现有技术预测研究方法基础上,提出了基于多维技术创新地图的技术预测方法,并以移动电源为例,通过专利搜集、整理与筛选,从多个创新维度提取专利文献中包含的关键技术要素,同时结合创新法则对专利中的技术方案进行分析。最后,对移动电源的技术发展趋势与方向进行了预测与总结。[结果/结论]研究结果表明,通过运用该技术创新方法可找出研究领域的技术发展趋势,为相关企业生产活动提供了科学决策的理论支撑。

[ Purpose/Significance ] Technological forecasting is a prediction of the technology development, which is mainly made of systematic change effect, potential directions and prospect targets, to enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. [ Method/Process ] Based on the summary of technical knowledge discovery and the existing technology forecasting research method, we have proposed a tech- nological forecasting method based on multidimensional technology innovation map. Taking the portable power as an example, through the patent collection, sorting and screening, we extract the key technical elements of the patent literature from different innovative dimensions. At the same time, we analyze the technical scheme in patent with the innovation rule. [ Result/Conclusion ] Finally, by applying the tech- nology innovation method,we predict and summarize the development trend and direction of portable power＇s technology, which aims to provide theoretical support for scientific decision-making.