开放与中国经济波动动态特征分析

Dynamic Characteristics of Openness and China's Economic Volatility

通过构建SV-TVP-VAR模型从贸易开放、技术引进和短期国际资本流动三个方面研究开放与中国经济波动之间的非线性关系。结果显示,三个因素对经济波动的影响都具有明显的时变特征,具体而言:在贸易开放度较低时,贸易开放能够降低经济波动,但在贸易开放度较高的时期,贸易开放反而加剧了经济波动;在技术引进的前期,技术引进能够有效平抑经济波动,但到了后期,技术引进降低经济波动的作用开始减弱,甚至有可能成为波动的冲击来源;短期国际资本流动在大多数时期都会加剧经济波动,是经济波动的主要来源之一。另外,研究还发现在国际金融危机时期这三个因素都成为了中国经济波动的冲击来源。

This paper studies the relationship between the openness and economic volatility from three aspects which are trade openness, technology introduction and short-term international capital flows through the establish- ment of the SV-TVP-VAR model. The results show that the three factors have obvious temporal characteristics. A- mong them, trade openness and technology introduction affect the economy differently in different periods, while the short-term international capital flows in most periods are the source of volatility. In addition, it is also found that dur- ing the international financial crisis, the three factors have become the shock source of China＇ s economic volatility.