基于预期度量、预期特征和预期效应视角的汇率预期研究综述

Review of Exchange Rate Expectation Based on Expected Measure,Expected Feature and Expected Effect

从预期度量、预期特征和预期效应三个方面对汇率预期的研究成果进行梳理和评述,以期为后续的汇率预期研究提供理论基础和有益参考。通过文献梳理发现:汇率预期度量方法有待改进,汇率预期特征研究有待深入,汇率预期效应研究有待完善。进一步发现:可以通过"序列估算"解决汇率预期度量问题,可以在非线性框架下深化汇率预期特征研究,可以通过动态随机一般均衡模型完善汇率预期效应研究。

This paper combed and evaluated the research es of exchange rate expectation from the expected measure, the expected feature and expected effect, to provide a theoretical basis and useful reference for following-up researches. Literature review revealed that the measurement method for exchange rate expectations need improve, the studies of expectation features need go further, and the studies of expectation effect need perfect. This paper also pointed out that the measurement problem could be solved by sequence estimation, feature researches of exchange rate expectation could be deepened under the nonlinear frame, the expected effect researches could be perfected by the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.