世界经济格局变迁与服务业开放

Changes of world economic structure and opening up of service industry

综合比较服务贸易占GDP比重、世界银行服务贸易限制指数与OECD服务贸易限制指数,可以发现服务开放与人均GNI的关系的确存在着一种类似于S型螺旋上升的发展轨迹。从开放度水平来看,目前中国又与美日等国最为接近,尤其是2008年国际金融危机以来的日本,但在具体行业上有差别。在服务业内部结构演变方面,日本更接近于英国,而不是美国。但日本的金融服务业发展明显落后于英美,这或许是在这一轮全球化中,英美比日本面临更大挑战的原因之一。今后一段时期,英美还将面临医疗和教育服务开支上升的压力,服务业结构仍需做出显著调整。

After comparing the proportion of service trade over GDP,with the world bank servicetrade restriction index and OECD service trade restriction index,this paper finds that there exists a similar path to the S type spiral in the relationship between service open and per capita GNI.From the level of opening up,China is now the closest to the United States and Japan,especially Japan since the 2008 international financial crisis,but there are differences in specific industries.In terms of the evolution of the internal structure of services,Japan is closer to Britain rather than the United states.But Japan's financial services sector is clearly lagging behind those of Britain and the United States,perhaps one of the reasons why Britain and the United States face agreater challenge in this round of globalization than Japan.Over the next few years,Britain and the United States will face pressure from the rising costs of medical and educational services,and the structure of service sector will need significant adjustments.