经济增长、能源消费与外商直接投资的双向耦合关系——基于污染物排放强度分组

The Two-way Coupling Relationship Among Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Grouping of Three Environmental Pollutants Emission Intensity

本文根据三大环境污染物排放强度进行分区,分别建立高、低污染物排放区的经济增长-能源消费-外商直接投资的PVAR模型,通过脉冲响应、方差分析和Granger因果检验分析比较了3个变量的双向动态关系。结果表明:(1)碳排放和工业固体废物低排放区的3个变量的动态关系显著而高排放区却不显著,工业废水高低排放区均不显著;(2)在三大污染物的低排放区,外商直接投资均能显著地促进能源消费强度的下降;(3)在低碳区和工业固体废物低排放区,经济增长与能源消费存在双向因果关系,这意味着该地区经济增长能有效降低能源消费强度,同时能源消费又能促进经济的增长。

The paper establishes the PVAR model in high and low pollutant emission area respectively which comprises economic growth, energy consumption and foreign direct investment according to emission intensity of three environmental pollutants. We conduct comparative analysis of the two-way dynamic relationship among 3variables by the impulse response, variance analysis and Granger causality test. The results show： （1） The dynamic relationship among the three variables in the low emission zone of carbon emission and industrial solid waste is significant, while it is not significant in the high emission area. What＇ s more, that＇ s not significant in high and low pollutant emission area of industrial waste water; （2） In the low emission areas of the three major pollutants, foreign direct investment can significantly weaken energy consumption intensity; （3） There is a two-way causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the low emission zone of carbon emission and industrial solid waste which means the economic growth can effectively weaken energy consumption intensity while energy consumption can promote economic growth.