错误恐惧引起的证券监管者非理性偏差研究

Research on Unreasonable Fear-Caused Irrational Biases of Securities Regulators

证券市场监管效果是社会关注的焦点,证券监管者非理性偏差直接影响着证券监管效果。本文通过有情境因素的问卷调查,发现证券监管者普遍存在损失厌恶、后悔厌恶及偏好逆转三种非理性偏差。实证研究表明三种非理性偏差之间存在关联性,其中后悔厌恶和偏好逆转呈现高度正相关,后悔厌恶和损失厌恶、偏好逆转和损失厌恶都呈现中度正相关。通过分析其形成原因和表现形式,发现监管者错误恐惧心理是引起三种非理性偏差的共同原因,错误恐惧经历了错误预期、错误体验和错误承担三个演化阶段。在此基础上,进一步分析了错误恐惧导致决策失误的途径,以助于监管者克服错误恐惧,防范非理性偏差。

Regulatory effectiveness of securities market is the social focus, and irrational biases of securities regulators directly affects securities regulatory effectiveness.In this article, based on situational survey we find that three irrational biases of Loss Aversion, Regret Aversion and Preference Reversal generally existingfor securities regulators. Empirical study shows that the three irrational biases are correlated with each other, i.e. there are a highly positive correlation between Regret Aversion and Preference Reversal, and a moderately positive correlation as well between Regret Aversion and Loss Aversion as between Preference Reversal and Loss Aversion. By further analyzing causes and forms of the three irrational biases, it is found that regulators＇ unreasonable fear during the deci- sion-making process was the common cause and experienced three stages of evolution： unreasonable expectation, unreasonable experience and unreasonable commitment. Furthermore, this article demonstrates the path of unreasonable fear resulting decision mistakes, which will help regulators overcome unreasonable fear and keep away from irrational biases.