中国输美木地板企业遭遇双反调查的影响实证分析

Impact of Countervailing Duty Investigation and Antidumping Duty Investigation on Chinese Wood Flooring Exports Enterprises:An Empirical Analysis

采用GTAP模型对中国发展美国市场的复合木地板企业2010年起遭受双反调查的不利影响进行预测的结果表明:双反税的征收能使中国出口美国的木制品数量骤减。鉴于此,建议中国木地板企业提高产品竞争力的同时保持供应链的合法和可追溯性以应对类似的贸易调查。

⑴Background——Since 2010,the US initiated countervailing duty(CVD)investigation and antidumping duty(AD)investigation of wood flooring from China.AD/CVD laws are administered jointly by the US International Trade Commission and the US Department of Commerce.Since 2010 until the paper release,the investigations have gone through the process of prosecution,filing,preliminary ruling,verification and arbitration,administrative review,etc.The final determinations for total duties rate for the first time issued in October 2011 is below 5%,while the following results of annual review of total duties rates alleged from July 2015,doubled compared with results of 2011 and kept upward trend.⑵Methods——In this paper,a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model and GTAP Database were used to simulated the unfavorable impact for Chinese wood flooring producer after the duties rates alleged,such as the increase in cost of production.Based on standard GTAP static model,four scenarios like 5%,10%,15% and 20% increase of the duties rates alleged on Chinese wood products were simulated.⑶Results——The simulation results show that,the duties rates alleged can lower the Chinese domestic prices of wood products to reduce the supply of Chinese wood products to the US,cause China unfavorable trade balance with US.As the higher level of the duties rates alleged,the more negative effect of shocks on the export,the domestic production and the prices of Chinese wood products kept downward trend.When the duties rate reach 20%,it can effectively reduce the exports,the domestic production and the domestic prices of Chinese wood products by 8%,17%and 0.6%,and can lower the American import of Chinese wood products by 1.8%,Chinese trade deficit with US can reach 9.4 billon USD.After the analysis of comparison between the decline in margin of Chinese domestic production and Chinese export based the same level of duties rates alleged,the simulation results indicated the China rely the most on trade with the US.Since China and the US as the largest developing country and developed countries in the world,and as the largest two trade bodies in the world in addition to the European Union,the change of the behavior of production and consumption between the two countries could also have a deep global impact.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——Because of the low brand awareness and serious product homogeneity in a part of Chinese wood flooring exports enterprises,even lack of sustainable profitability,and some profit growth of enterprises depends on state financial support or price support like the export tax rebate,they can easily become the target or object of CVD and AD investigations.It was suggested that based on a better understanding on the determinants international trade rules,Chinese wood flooring producers should pay attention to the value of products and brand innovation,enhance the competitiveness of products,meanwhile they should establish a due diligence system and keep the supply chain of legality and traceability in response to the similar trade investigations,then the trade relationship of wood products between China and US could become more free and active.