港口物流与对外贸易联动发展研究

Research on the Linkage Development of Port Logistics and Foreign Trade

对外贸易是经济全球化发展的一个重要驱动力,而港口在促进地区与外界进行物资交易和信息交流方面发挥着重要的载体作用。改革开放以来,大连对外贸易的蓬勃发展同大连港的促进作用紧密相关。本文以大连港为研究对象,首先选取港口货物吞吐量和外贸进出口总额两个指标,建立向量自回归VAR模型,然后运用ADF检验、协整检验、脉冲响应以及方差分解的方法对大连港港口物流与对外贸易之间的关系进行分析,研究表明:大连港港口物流效率的提高能够在长期内促进着进出口贸易的增加,而港口物流效率实质性的提升并不归因于对外贸易方面的发展。最后在结合上述研究结果的基础上,提出加快大连港港口物流与对外贸易联动发展的建议。

Foreign trade is a key drive in economic globalization with the port playing an important role in promoting the goods and information exchange with the world. Since the reform and opening up of China, the vigorous development of Dalian＇s foreign trade is closely related to Dalian Port. Taking Dalian Port as object, this paper first selects two index of port cargo of total import and export volume to establish vector autoregressive VAR model, in ADF test of integration test to impulse the response and variance decomposition to analyze the relationship between port logistics and foreign trade in Dalian Port. The results show that the improvement of Dalian port logistics efficiency increase import and export trade in the long run and the substantial improvement of port logistics efficiency attribute to the development of foreign trade. Lastly, based on the research results above, this paper puts forward some suggestions to accelerating the development of port logistics and foreign trade in Dalian Port.