新常态下中国经济潜在增长率估算

Estimate of Potential Growth Rate of China's Economy Under the New Normal

当前对经济发展新常态的解读主要是从全国层面来进行的。把握经济发展新常态特征的关键是对潜在增长率进行合理估算和预测。与现有文献不同,本文不仅从全国层面估算潜在增长率,而且还从区域层面估算潜在增长率。本文使用生产函数方法,以ARMA模型为辅助,对中国经济的合理增速进行估算。研究发现:(1)从全国层面来看,未来十年中国经济潜在增长率相对于以往将保持在一个相对较低的水平,为6%左右,这与中央所做出的中国经济发展进入"新常态"的判断相吻合;(2)根据生产函数法,从供给侧来看,新常态下中国潜在经济增长率下降主要源于劳动力成本上升、投资收益率下降带来的资本投入减少以及全要素生产率的贡献下降;(3)虽然从全国层面来看,未来十年中国经济增长率总体上呈现出从高速增长转向中高速增长的下降趋势,但区域层面则呈现出增长率分化的趋势。新常态并不意味着各地区同步进入经济发展新常态。基于长期以来中国全要素生产率处于波动震荡的状况,本文提出相关的政策建议。

The current interpretation of the economic development in the new normal is mainly from the national level. The key to grasping the new normal features of economic development is to reasonably estimate and forecast the potential growth rate. Different from the existing literature, this paper estimates the potential growth rate not only from the national level, but also from the regional level. In this paper, the production function method is used to estimate the reasonable growth rate of China＇s economy. Results show as follows. Firstly, from the national perspective,the potential growth rate of China＇s economy in the next 10 years will remain a relatively low level relative to the past, consistent with the central government＇s judgment of the new normal. Secondly, according to the production function,from the supply side,the decrease of China＇s potential growth rate is mainly due to the rise of labor costs, the reduction of capital investment and the decline of TFP contribution. Thirdly, although from the national perspective, in the next 10 years, China＇s economic growth rate shows a downward trend from the rapid growth of the high-speed growth, the regional level is showing a trend of growth rate differentiation. Besides, the new normal does not require that all regions of China should be synchronized into the new normal of economic development. Based on the volatility of China＇s TFP, the paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.