中间品贸易自由化、增加值出口与生产率进步

Trade Liberation of Intermediate Input,Value-Added to Export and Productivity Progress

本文在测算增加值出口和多边增加值全要素生产率指数的基础上,利用世界投入产出数据库和关税数据,系统考察中间品贸易自由化、增加值出口对生产率进步的影响,并细致区分不同国家的增加值出口和不同行业的影响差异,多种方案的稳健性检验和中介效应均证实结论的可靠性。研究发现:首先,无论是总体回归还是分国别回归,增加值出口显著促进了生产率进步,且对美国、欧盟和日韩等发达国家的增加值出口的生产率效应强于对金砖国家和印尼等新兴国家及发展中国家。其次,考虑到中间品贸易自由化的交互影响,增加值出口强化了中间品贸易自由化的生产率效应,且对制造业中间品贸易自由的生产率效应的强化作用要小于对服务业中间品贸易自由化的生产率效应的强化作用。此外,通过中介效应模型验证中间品关税的下降能够增加进口的中间品种类,进而有利于行业生产率的提升。

This paper uses the WIOD data base and tariff data to calculate the value-added to export and the index of the total factor productivity, systematically studies the productivity effect of trade liberation of intermediate input and value-added to export, and carefully distinguishes the productivity effect of different countries and industries. The reliability of the conclusion is proved by many methods. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, the value-added to export significantly improves productivity, and the promoting effect of the value-added of exports to developed countries is stronger than that of exports to emerging countries and developing countries. Secondly, the value-added to export strengthens the productivity effect of intermediate goods trade liberalization. Thirdly, the reinforcement of the productivity effect on the trade liberalization of intermediate goods in the manufacturing industry is smaller than that of intermediate goods trade in the service industry. Moreover, the decline in the intermediate goods tariff increases the number of imported intermediate varieties, thereby improving the industry productivity.