外交决策模式视角下的韩国对华政策调整——基于对朴槿惠政府的考察

An Analysis of South Korea Policy Adjustment towards China from the Perspective of Diplomatic Decision-Making Model:Based on the Study on Park Geun-hye Administration

韩国朴槿惠政府自2016年以来对华政策急转直下,通过外交决策模式的分析可以发现,韩国对华政策调整总体是在中美竞争的大格局下,基于国家利益考量权衡得失之后做出的理性选择;而朝鲜核试验使得韩国决策层认为中国"辜负"了韩国的期望,巨大的心理落差和领导人的性格特征触发和加速了政策调整的过程;朴槿惠政府的"小圈子"外交、安保决策体制也是对华政策调整突然、迅速的重要原因,而国内政治矛盾则使强硬的对外政策有了持续发酵的空间和为政党利益服务的价值。韩国此轮对华政策调整不仅给中韩关系带来了巨大负面影响,而且对下一届政府的外交政策调整也是一场严峻的考验。

Since 2016, the policy of South Korea＇s Park Geun-hye Administration towards China has taken a sudden turn for the worse. From the perspective of diplomatic decision-making model, it can be observed that generally South Korea＇s overall policy adjustment towards China is under the circumstance of Sino-US competition and it is a rational alternative based on the consideration of national interests. North Korean nuclear test makes Korean decision-makers think that China failed to live up to South Korea＇s expectations. The great psychological letdown and the personality of the leaders triggered and accelerated the process of policy adjustment. On the other hand, Park Geun-hye administration＇s＂small circle＂diplomacy and security policy decision system is another essential reason for the sudden and eruptive adjustment. In addition, the domestic political conflict makes tough foreign policy continue to ferment and serve for the party＇s interests.South Korea＇s policy adjustment not only has a huge negative impact on the relation between China and South Korea, but also poses a great challenge for the next administration＇s foreign policy adjustment.