湖北省粮食生产时空变化及灰色关联动态分析

Analysis of Temporal-spatial Variation Characters and Grey Relevancy of Grain Production in Hubei Province

以湖北省2001—2015年县域和省域粮食生产数据为基础,运用粮食产量重心模型揭示了湖北省粮食生产时空变化特征,在此基础上建立粮食生产与相关因素的灰色关联模型,并对驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明:2001—2015年湖北省粮食总产量和人均粮食产量动态变化趋势一致,总体上呈上升态势,2001—2003年快速下降,2003—2015年连续增长,粮食产量变化最直接的原因是粮食播种面积的变化。2001—2015年粮食产量重心一直在京山县境内移动,但整体上向北偏东52.31°方向移动了11.82km。粮食产量与7个因素显著相关,其中有效灌溉面积、粮食单位面积产量、粮食作物播种面积和农药使用量是湖北省粮食生产的四大驱动因素。

This paper analyzed the temporal-spatial variation characters grain production in Hubei province basing on grain production gravity center model by choosing grain production statistics from 2001 to 2015. On this basis,the grey correlation model of grain production and related factors is established, then the driving factors are analyzed. The results show that. From 2001 to 2015 ,the changing trends of per capita food production and grain yield per unit area are totally the same as the overall upward trend. They are rapidly decreasing in the period of 2001-2003, but continuously growing from 2003-2015. And the most direct reason for the changes in grain production is the change of the area sown to grain. From 2001 to 2015,the center of grain production has been moving in Jingshan County, shifting by 11.82 km to the east 52.31°. Seven of these ten factors are significantly related to grain production, meanwhile effective irrigation area, grain yield per sown, the area sown of corps and the application of pesticides are the four chief drivers.