基于Bass模型的舟山大型捕捞渔船扩散预测

Prediction of Zhoushan Large-Size Fishing Vessel Diffusion based on Bass Model

根据2007-2014年舟山市大型捕捞渔船销售数据,通过非线性回归分析的方法建立渔船销售量的Bass模型。运用该模型预测大型捕捞渔船未来几年的累计销售量,并依据当前全国能源状况以及舟山海域环境资源状况对其展望。

In this paper, the Bass model of fishing vessel sales is established by nonlinear regression analysis based on the data of large fishing vessels during 2007-2014 in Zhoushan. Using the model, we predict the cumulative sales of large-size fishing vessels in the coming years. According to the facts of Zhoushan, some suggests are given.