中国与“一带一路”国家的贸易效率与影响因素研究

A Study on Trade Efficiency and Its Determinants between China and “Belt and Road” Countries

基于各种引力模型的贸易潜力以及相应的贸易效率的估算方法存在诸多不足,如测算贸易潜力时考虑实际的各种贸易阻力因素(甚至包括贸易促进因素)"平均化"作用、模型复杂计算困难、国际比较性差等。在综合考虑贸易吸引力、贸易推力和贸易阻力的APR模型分析框架下,贸易吸引力决定经济体间的贸易潜力即理论贸易量,贸易推力和贸易阻力决定经济体间的实际贸易量,由此测算的贸易效率经济意义明确、计算简单、且具有更好的国际比较性。理论贸易量的推算发现,小规模经济体的对外贸易依存度比大规模经济体的更高,并更容易形成贸易效率大于1.0的"超贸易"。根据2015年数据计算的贸易效率表明:(1)一带一路国家对中国的出口效率平均为0.1326。

The estimations up to now of bilateral wade potential and corresponding- trade etticiency based on various gravity models have the shortcomings such as considering the ＂averaged＂ effects of various trade resistances （ even inclusive of trade pushing factors） on trade potential, complicated models and calculations, lack of international comparability etc. Under the analytical framework of APR Model that takes into consideration comprehensively the attracting force, pushing force and resisting force of trade, the attracting force determines the trade potential, i.e. Idealized Trade Volume, and the trade pushing and resisting forces together result in the real trade volume between economic entities, which makes the trade efficiency clearer in economic significance, easier to be calculated, and much more comparable internationally. The deductions of Idealized Trade Volume indicate that smaller economies tend to have higher foreign trade dependency and thus to produce more easily ＂super trading＂ with trade efficiency bigger than 1.0. The trade efficiencies on data of year 2015 demonstrate： （1） the mean export efficiency to China of belt and road countries is 0. 1326, only 38.19% of that to the world, indicating huge exporting potential to China; （2） the mean export efficiency of China to belt and road countries is 0.4111, amounting to 167% of that to the world. Although there exist ＂super expo^ng＂ to Kyrghyzstan, Cambodia, Singapore, and Malaysia, the exporting to over half of belt and road countries still has big potential; （3） the export efficiency shows a turning point in the year 2009, before which the belt and road countries had exported more to China and after which China exported more to the belt and road countries. Of all the 14 possible variables to impact bilateral trade efficiencies, regression analysis can only identify 5 of them as significant ones： economy size, language similarity, WTO membership, geographical distance, and NTB level.