中国新四化对能源强度的影响

Influence of development of China's‘four modernizations' on energy intensity

实现节能降耗是新四化的应有之义。关于此主题的研究多使用单一指标测度新四化,未充分体现"新"的内涵。本文采用2011-2014年中国30省(市)的数据,以重新构建的新四化指数为基础,评价新四化的区域发展情况,识别四个指标间的相互作用以及它们对能源强度的影响。首先,在以新四化指数进行区域发展评价时发现,中国省际新四化水平基本与其区域经济发展梯度相吻合。其次,计量模型结果表明,新型城镇化、信息化和农业现代化水平的提升明显改善了能源强度,但新型工业化水平的提升对能源强度的积极影响相对较小。此外,新四化在降低能源强度方面表现出边际效应递减的效果,当以新四化衡量的区域发展水平较高时,提升某一化水平对整体能源强度的改善效果降低,说明新四化影响能源强度的效应趋于收敛。因而,着力提高区际资源配置效率,优先提升落后省份的新四化水平,对推动中国能源强度的下降极为重要。

Establishing a new path of development in order to realize four modernizations （urbanization, industrialization, informatization and agricultural modernization）implies energysaving. Simple indices such as urbanization rate or the fraction of industrial added value in GDP have been the focus of previous research. Simple construction of the indices cannot reflect new pattern development of the four modernizations. The implication of the new-pattern means other factors, such as energy consumption, environmental disruption and conservation need to be considered. This study investigated the effects of new pattern development of the four modernizations on energy intensity in order to assess the regional development of China, employing provincial level data from 2011 to 2014. First, we constructed four new type indices using principal component analysis and then presented the distribution of the indices among 30 provinces of China. The results show that the development of the four modernizations basically coincides with the economic development of China. Then, we use panel data model to estimate the effect of four new type indices on energy intensity. The results show that the development of newtype urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization significantly improve energy intensity （i.e. decrease the energy consumption per production）. However, we show that the impact of new-type industrialization on energy intensity is minor. In addition, the marginal contribution of the new-type index has a decreasing effect on energy intensity. Specifically, improving one facet of the four modernizations will have minor effect on energy intensity under high-development of the other three dimensions of modernization. These results indicate that the effect of modernization on energy intensity will be convergent at some point. Therefore, it is very important to decrease China＇s energy intensity by improving regional resource allocation efficiency and the new pattern four modernizations of underdeveloped provinces.