中美制造业技术差距及其影响因素研究

The Manufacturing Technology Gap between China and US and its Influencing Factors

中国已经成为全球制造业大国,但制造业技术水平和产品质量同发达国家仍存在一定的差距。文章利用CES生产函数和标准化供给面系统法测算了1995~2009年中国与美国制造业技术差距,并对技术差距的影响因素进行了实证研究。测算结果表明,中美制造业技术差距在1995~1998年期间出现短暂缩小,但1999~2009年期间技术差距呈现不断扩大的趋势。从分行业看,中国的资源、能源等垄断性制造业和高端制造业同美国的技术差距较大,而消费品制造业同美国的技术差距较小。利用分行业数据实证研究表明,中美制造业技术差距扩大的主要影响因素是信息通信技术和制度环境,特别是中国20世纪90年代以来的制度改革并未有效促进信息技术进步进而缩小中美制造业技术差距。全球价值链嵌入程度在中国加入WTO后显著缩小了中美制造业技术差距。中国的人力资本积累并未有效缩小中美制造业技术差距,而且,随着人均GDP的上升,中美制造业技术差距并未呈现收敛趋势。

In this paper,the CES production function and the standardized supply-side system method were used to measure the gap between China and the US manufacturing technology level from 1995 to 2009,and to study the influence factors of technology gap.The results show that the technology gap between China and the US manufacturing industry has been shortened during the period of 1995 ~ 1998,and expanding from 1999 to 2009. The empirical study shows that the main factors affecting the technological gap between China and the US are ICT technology and institutional environment. In particular,the institutional reforms in China since 1990s have not effectively promoted the progress of ICT technology and thus narrowed Technology gap. The embedded degree of global value chain after China's accession to the WTO significantly narrowed the gap between China and the United States manufacturing technology. China's human capital accumulation has not effectively narrowed the technology gap between China and the US manufacturing industries. With the increase in GDP per capita,the US-China manufacturing technology gap does not appear convergence trend.