基于LEAP模型的长江经济带分区域碳排放核算及情景分析

Regional Carbon Emissions Estimation and Scenario Analysis in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on LEAP Model

构建了长江经济带分区域碳排放LEAP模型,核算了现状排放量,并对2015—2030年碳排放变化进行了情景分析。结果表明:(1)2015年长江经济带碳排放总量为41.61亿吨CO_2,空间上东部区域排放占比最高,贡献源上以终端能耗碳排放为主。2030年左右碳排放将达到峰值,基准情景峰值约为57亿吨CO_2,碳排放强度较2015年累计下降46.83%,中部区域将成为碳排放最高板块。(2)终端能耗部门中工业、第三产业,能源加工转换部门中火力发电,涉工业过程排放的水泥和钢铁产业是碳减排的关键部门。(3)随着发电结构的变化,能源加工转换碳排放有可能在2025年前达到峰值,工业过程碳排放控制将逐渐成为碳减排面临的新挑战。

This paper develops a LEAP model for Carbon Emissions of Yangtze River Economic Belt （YREB）, and estimates regional carbon emissions in YREB. The results of carbon emissions scenario analysis during 2015-2030 show that： （1） there are 41.61 × 10^8 ton CO2 emissions in YREB in 2015, the eastern area and terminal energy consumption are the mainly area and source of carbon emissions. The peak of carbon emissions in YREB is about 57× 10^8 ton CO2 around 2030, the carbon intensity will accumulated decline of 46.83% compared with that of 2015 in baseline scenario, and the central area will replace the eastem area as the mainly area of carbon emissions. （2） Industry, tertiary industry, thermal power, cement, and steel are the key sectors of carbon reduction. （3）The carbon emissions from energy conversion will reach its peak value before 2025 with changing of power structure, and the carbon emissions from industrial process is the new challenge for carbon reduction in the future.