丝绸之路经济带水资源环境与经济社会协调分析

Analysis of Coordination between Water Resources & Environment and the Economy and Society along the Silk Road Economic Belt

丝绸之路经济带是中国全方位对外开放与互联互通的战略通道之一,水资源环境对其经济发展具有重要影响。通过三次计量模型分析2005—2014年丝绸之路经济带水资源、水环境的库兹涅茨曲线;进一步选取典型指标,选用熵权法与距离协调度模型建立两系统协调度模型,并对2020年以前的水资源环境与经济社会协调度进行预测。结果显示:(1)工业用水强度与废水排放量EKC曲线呈先上升后下降的倒"U"型,化学需氧量呈先下降后上升的"U"型,而居民人均用水量EKC曲线呈"N"型。(2)沿线各省区协调发展是不平衡的,西南省区协调度相对较高,而西北省区相对较低;两系统综合协调度在过去10年间经历了先上升后下降两个阶段。(3)ARIMA预测2015—2020年协调值总体呈下降趋势;灰色Verhulst预测此间,协调度仍然保持缓慢增长,总体维持在0.8的水平;指数平滑预测2015—2018年协调度下降,2019—2020年缓慢上升。

Silk Road Economic Belt is one of China＇s strategic channel of overall opening and interconnection, Water resources and environment have an important impact on their economic development. Water resources, water environmental Kuznets curves of the Silk Road Economic Belt were analyzed by cubic econometric model from 2005 to 2014. Furthermore, typical indicators were selected and entropy method and distance coordination model were used to found the coordination Model, and water environment and social coordination of economic were forecasted by 2020. The results show that： （1） EKC curves of the strength of industrial water and waste water emissions were increased and then decreased like the inverted ＂U＂ shaped, the one of chemical oxygen demand was dropped after the first rise like the ＂U＂ shaped, while per capita water consumption EKC curve is ＂N＂ type. （2） Coordinated development in the provinces alongside is uneven, the coordination of the southwest provinces is relatively high, and the coordination of the northwest provinces is relatively low. Comprehensive coordination of the two systems increased and then decreased after two stages in during the past 10 years. （3） ARIMA forecasts Coordination value has overall downward trend from 2015 to 2020. Gray Verhulst predicts that coordination remains slow growth, the overall level remained at 0.8. Exponential smoothing forecast Coordination decreases from 2015 to 2018, and rises slowly from 2019 to 2020.