中国2011—2015年登革热疫情分析

THE EPIDEMIC CHARACTERS OF DENGUE FEVER IN CHINA FROM 2011 TO 2015

本文探讨了中国2011—2015年登革热疫情的时空分布特征。收集整理中国各省2011—2015年登革热疫情监测数据,应用Arc GIS 9.0软件建立地理信息库,利用Sa TScan7.0软件进行时空聚类分析,确定登革热疫情发生的时空热点区域,再对该热点区域进一步进行疫情分析。中国2011—2015年登革热疫情呈显著的聚集性分布。一级时空聚类区为广东省2014年10月;存在2个二级聚类区,一个是云南省2015年10月,另一个是江西、福建省2014年9月。登革热的热点区域广东省2013—2015年的时空聚类分析显示,一级聚类区为广州市、东莞市和佛山市,聚类时段为2014年9—10月;二级聚类区为广东省东部的潮州市,聚类时间为2015年9月。我国2011—2015年登革热疫情主要分布于东南沿海区域(以广东省为主)、西南部地区(以云南省为主)。广东省2013—2014年登革发疫情主要聚集于该省的中部地区,2015年高发聚集区东移至该省东部。

To explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of dengue fever in China from 2011 to 2015.The data of dengue fever in province of China is collected from 2011 to 2015.The ArcGIS 9.0 software is used to establish the geographical information base.The SaTScan7.0 software is adopted to carry out the clustering analysis to confirm the spatial and temporal focus regions of dengue fever.Further epidemic situation of focus regions is delved into.From 2011 to 2015,the dengue fever in China's Mainland significantly aggregated in both spatial and temporal aspects.The most potential area of dengue fever is mainly located in the Guangdong province in October 2014.The second cluster areas include two major regions,one is the Yunnan province in October 2015,and the other is the Jiangxi and Fujian provinces in September 2015.According to the space-time scan statistics analysis of Guangdong province from 2013 to 2015,the most likely cluster area includes Guangzhou,Dongguan and Foshan from September to and October 2014.Chaozhou in September 2015 followed.The dengue fever has been mainly distributed in southeast coastal areas centered by Guangdong province,and southwestern areas in China's Mainland from 2011 to 2013.From 2013 to 2014,the dengue fever has been mainly severe in the central region of Guangdong province.In 2015,dengue fever drifted to the eastern Guangdong Province.