生产资料投入量对河北省粮食产量的贡献率分析

Analysis on the Contribution Rate of the Input of Production Material to the Grain Yield of Hebei Province

文章主要采用主成分回归C-D生产函数模型,分析了生产资料投入量对河北省粮食产量的弹性及贡献率。结果表明:粮食播种面积、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量以及机耕面积的弹性系数均为正显示正效应,农业从业人员的弹性系数为负显示负效应;1995~2015年对河北省粮食产量贡献率最大的生产资料是粮食播种面积和农业机械总动力,贡献率共达到86.81%。根据数据分析所得结果,针对河北省当前粮食产量状况,提出保护土地红线、提升农业机械化水平、提高化肥利用率等可行性建议。

In this paper, the principal component regression C-D production function model is used to analyze the elasticity and contribution rate of the input of production material to the grain yield of Hebei Province. The results showed that the grain sown area, total power of agricultural machinery, effective irrigation area, chemical fertilizer input and tractor area elasticity coefficient showed the positive effect, the elasticity coefficient of agricultural workers showed negative effect. From 1995 to 2015, the highest rate of tribute production was the sown area of grain and total power of agricultural machinery, total contribution rate reached 86.81%. According to the results of the data analysis, some feasible suggestions under the current situation of grain production in Hehei Province were put forward in the paper, such as protecting the red line of farmland, raising agricultural mechanization level, enhancing utilization rate of chemical fertilizer.